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China Has 10 Years Left

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Says Geopolitical Analyst Peter Zaihan​



You can always tell what country is at the top or on the rise by tourism. It's an unofficial barometer I have noticed. 10 years ago, no matter where I saw tourists, Hollywood, Times Square, London, Tokyo, Manila, Chinese were the number one group. They had the biggest crowds and would be in by busloads.

These days? I see far, far more Indians. 5 years ago the 16 hour flight from Dubai to Los Angeles was on a huge plane with an upstairs. I'm guessing the plane could fit, 3 to 400 passengers. There were maybe 100 at most. So you had plenty of room, you could take a whole row, pull up the arm rest and sleep. It was stupid to try and upgrade to business class when there was plenty of room. Now? Its 90 percent filled and 70 percent of the plane are Indians. This years New Years eve in Saigon, Vietnam, not known at all for Indians. They were there in respectable numbers.

India, my unofficial guess, will be the next big economic power.

Anyway, China is sitting on the biggest housing bubble in human history. It's housing bubble dwarfs anything the US has. It has other demographic related issues as well. We already know the US will probably implode economically under its own weight of debt and other issues. (side question is how it will affect reparations).

Anyway, interesting view by this guy.
 

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Japan was the 2nd biggest economy in the 1980s. And were growing at a much faster rate than America. They owned a lot of real estate in America and started buying big U.S. companies (Sony). Toyota replaced GM as the world's biggest car company. They were by far the largest numbers of tourists to America at that time. There were movies about them taking over. Where are they now? They are 3rd largest economy but no one talks about them in any capacity as a world economic power.

Of course China will be around. Greece had a complete financial collapse and they are still a country. The video isn't if China will disappear. It will be here. The question is its future as an economic power. There is no guarantee America will always be the biggest economic power. No country is forever. The Spanish were the world's biggest economic power for a few hundred years, then the French then the UK up until after WW2.

There is a theory that countries/nations that rule its era goes through a cycle and then it ends and someone else replaces them.

The 5 Stages of Empire with David Murrin
 

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I can see your point. Statistically it's said America surpassed the UK as the world's biggest economy around the early 1900s. America wasn't officially recognized as the biggest economy until after World War 2.

When America became the world's biggest economy we had abject poverty still. We had 100s of 1000s of European immigrants living in squalor. We had 1000s of miles of unpaved road.

Point is it may not stop India. India's economy is now bigger than France and almost about to over take its former colonizer the UK. Its the 6th biggest economy. And although way behind China (and America), pre 1990s China was the 18th largest economy in 1980 and the 4th biggest in 1990.

If there is a crash between now and 2030 (and I'd bet there will be one), India has far less to travel to number 2 or 3 than China did. Similar size population with some advantages over China's rise and some disadvantages (ethnic & religious infighting).

I do agree with you about how important the control over fresh water will be in the future.
 

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