The Streets

[MR-D-ROB]

Trump lost in 2020 before the attempted January 6 election subversion. He lost before being indicted. These are generally considered the worst this he did.

According to polls:

60% of the general public approve of his indictment.

It is safe to assume that those that approved of the indictment likely won't vote for him.

This doesn't include people that disapprove but still wouldn't vote for him.

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What's really needed and decides most elections are independents

62% of independents approve of his indictment.


Again though, this doesn't include those that disapprove but still wouldn't vote for him.

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Even amongst Republican voters

Only 79% disapprove of his indictment.

That means around 1 out of every 5 Republicans approve of him being indicted. These likely may not vote for him.

It is highly unlikely that a person who didn't have the general support of the public and went on to do more bad things and now doesn't have a backing of the majority of the general public, doesn't have a majority of the independent vote, and doesn't even have full support of his own party will win reelection.



The news just reports as if he has a chance because they know a portion of people and certain demographics fear and are terrified of a Trump reelection so it gets ratings.

 

[Deleted member 1946]

Trump lost in 2020 before the attempted January 6 election subversion. He lost before being indicted. These are generally considered the worst this he did.

According to polls:

60% of the general public approve of his indictment.

It is safe to assume that those that approved of the indictment likely won't vote for him.

This doesn't include people that disapprove but still wouldn't vote for him.

--------------------

What's really needed and decides most elections are independents

62% of independents approve of his indictment.


Again though, this doesn't include those that disapprove but still wouldn't vote for him.

--------------

Even amongst Republican voters

Only 79% disapprove of his indictment.

That means around 1 out of every 5 Republicans approve of him being indicted. These likely may not vote for him.

It is highly unlikely that a person who didn't have the general support of the public and went on to do more bad things and now doesn't have a backing of the majority of the general public, doesn't have a majority of the independent vote, and doesn't even have full support of his own party will win reelection.



The news just reports as if he has a chance because they know a portion of people and certain demographics fear and are terrified of a Trump reelection so it gets ratings.

Great points. But the person who is losing now still has a real chance of winning. It has happened too many times where the person leading the pack early go on to lose. I won't be voting for anybody in 2024, but I see why you gave the analysis you did.

 

[MR-D-ROB]

If course another analysis is viewing electoral votes.
Biden only won in 2020 by around 43,000 votes across 3 swing states.
So a change of that few votes could determine the outcome.

In other words even though Trump has such low support he doesn't need to win the popular vote. He just needs to repeat 2016 and he'll win!

 

[Deleted member 1946]

I've heard dozens of professional Black business owners say they wis Trump was back in there since their business was doing better under Trump than Biden.

 

[Deleted member 1946]

If course another analysis is viewing electoral votes.
Biden only won in 2020 by around 43,000 votes across 3 swing states.
So a change of that few votes could determine the outcome.

In other words even though Trump has such low support he doesn't need to win the popular vote. He just needs to repeat 2016 and he'll win!

That is logical. Too many Biden supporters have jumped ship.